{"id":46872,"date":"2021-02-19T09:05:29","date_gmt":"2021-02-19T01:05:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.imoney.my\/articles\/?p=46872"},"modified":"2021-02-19T09:05:29","modified_gmt":"2021-02-19T01:05:29","slug":"epf-dividend-2020-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.imoney.my\/articles\/epf-dividend-2020-expectations","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s What Experts Are Saying About The EPF\u2019s 2020 Dividend"},"content":{"rendered":"
In our previous coverage<\/a> of the upcoming dividend, we explored the challenges that the EPF is currently facing. These included the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, its growing portfolio size and an uncertain economic outlook in the short- and medium- term.<\/p>\n So, how is the EPF dealing with these challenges, and what kind of dividends can we expect this year? We spoke to a few experts to find out.<\/p>\n Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, Bank Islam chief economist<\/p><\/div>\n Imran Yassin Md. Yusof, MIDF Head of Research<\/p><\/div>\n Dr. Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff, Putra Business School Associate Professor<\/p><\/div>\n Bank Islam\u2019s chief economist Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said that it is \u201cquite likely\u201d that the EPF dividend in 2020 could be lower than in 2019, which saw a 5.45% dividend for Conventional Savings and 5% for Syariah Savings. This is in light of volatility in the financial markets and a lower interest rate environment.<\/p>\n However, some experts note that the EPF\u2019s performance has been commendable, despite challenges.<\/p>\n MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd\u2019s Head of Research, Imran Yassin Md. Yusof, said that the EPF dividend might match the Amanah Saham Bumiputera\u2019s (ASB) 4.25% dividend that was recently declared.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is due to its commendable performance thus far. Based on EPF\u2019s 9M2020 performance, we note that its net investment income is only 0.5% lower than the full year 2019 net investment income. It is quite impossible for EPF to not register any income in 4Q2020. Hence, the performance could potentially be better, barring any impairments,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Putra Business School Associate Professor Dr. Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff agrees, saying, \u201cEven though the EPF dividend has never exceeded the ASB dividend in any particular year, this time I think maybe for the first time the EPF dividend will be higher.\u201d<\/p>\n According to Dr. Afzanizam, the EPF\u2019s diversification strategy has paid off, as its overseas investments have resulted in a meaningful contribution of income.<\/p>\n These investments have consistently produced higher returns than other asset classes, said Dr. Ahmed Razman. He notes that 32% of the EPF\u2019s overseas investments contributed 45% of the total gross investment income in the third quarter of 2020. That\u2019s up from 30% of its assets that contributed 39% of its gross investment income in the second quarter.<\/p>\n To help Malaysians cope with the financial burden of the recession, the EPF has allowed eligible members to withdraw part of their savings through the i-Lestari<\/a> and i-Sinar<\/a> programmes.<\/p>\n Dr. Ahmed Razman shared that more than RM34 billion has been withdrawn through these relief programmes. This is \u201cequivalent to 3.6% of EPF assets, not including the potential additional withdrawal from Category 2 i-Sinar, which is still pending,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n But he points out that this can potentially affect the dividend rate, as the EPF had to increase its holding in money market instruments to prepare for withdrawals. These investments are more liquid, but will usually provide lower returns than other asset classes.<\/p>\n \u201cFortunately, other asset classes such as overseas investment, fixed income and real estate investments have been performing well recently, which allows EPF to continue giving a competitive dividend rate,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Likewise, Imran Yassin said that MIDF does not believe that these relief measures will impact dividends significantly given the EPF\u2019s performance. He also pointed out that the EPF has always focused on cash flow management.<\/p>\n In addition, the EPF has a high inflow of funds. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was expected to receive RM1.7 billion in net inflows per month. \u201cAlthough with the impact of COVID-19, we expect a reduction to this amount, we opine that [the net inflows and the EPF\u2019s focus on cash flow management] will be able cover the outflow without significantly affecting dividends,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n While the pandemic continues to pose economic challenges, the EPF\u2019s Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) – the framework that helps it optimise for long-term returns – can help it stay resilient. The SAA allocates the EPF\u2019s portfolio to the following assets:<\/span>What can we expect for the upcoming dividend?<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/span>Overseas diversification pays off<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/span>Will i-Sinar and i-Lestari withdrawals affect returns?<\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/span>Staying resilient through the SAA<\/span><\/h2>\n
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